Highlights

• • Coulibaly favored by the market (1.427) but our model is more conservative (62%)
• • Required odds to make a value play on Coulibaly are ≥ 1.613; current price is shorter

Pros

• + Clearer superior win-loss record and better recent results in the provided research
• + Market consensus is for Coulibaly, matching our qualitative assessment that he is the likeliest winner

Cons

• - Neither player shows documented grass-court experience in the provided data, adding uncertainty
• - Market price implies >70% which exceeds our estimate, leaving no positive EV at current odds

Details

We compare the market price (Coulibaly 1.427 -> implied 70.1%) to our estimated true win probability for Eliakim Coulibaly of 62.0%. Coulibaly has the stronger overall record (38-22 vs 19-21) and better recent form in the provided data, which justifies him as the favorite, but the market is pricing him substantially higher than our assessment. Grass is the playing surface; neither profile shows clear grass experience in the supplied research, adding uncertainty and preventing us from confidently raising our probability above 70%. At our estimate p=0.62 the EV at the current decimal price 1.427 is negative (EV = 0.62 * 1.427 - 1 = -0.115), so there is no value on Coulibaly at the present price. We therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Coulibaly has a materially better career win-loss record and stronger recent form in the provided data
• • Market-implied probability (≈70.1% for Coulibaly) exceeds our estimated true probability (62%), producing negative EV
• • Surface is grass with no clear grass track record in the supplied profiles, increasing uncertainty and lowering our probability estimate