Highlights

• • Coulibaly's season win rate (~63%) is materially higher than Gueymard Wayenburg's (~44%).
• • Current market price for Coulibaly (2.35) is well above our break-even odds (1.724).

Pros

• + Clear statistical edge from season-wide win-loss records.
• + Recent match notes favor Coulibaly while the market favors his opponent, indicating mispricing.

Cons

• - No head-to-head matchup data provided to refine the estimate.
• - Uncertainty on the exact surface/venue conditions and other situational factors.

Details

We compare season-level win rates and recent form to the market. Eliakim Coulibaly has a 38-22 record this season (~63% wins) while Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg is 28-35 (~44% wins). Both players have experience on clay and hard courts, and the limited recent-match notes show Coulibaly with at least a recent win at the Cassis Challenger while Gueymard Wayenburg has recent losses. The market prices Gueymard Wayenburg as the favorite (decimal 1.57, implied ~63.7%) and prices Coulibaly at 2.35 (implied ~42.6%). Using the players' season win rates and recent form as our baseline, we estimate Coulibaly's true chance in this matchup at ~58%. At that probability, the break-even decimal odds are 1.724 (1/0.58). The current 2.35 quote for Coulibaly therefore offers positive expected value: EV = 0.58 * 2.35 - 1 = +0.363 (36.3% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We recognize uncertainty (no H2H data, venue specifics), but the combination of superior season win rate and recent form versus a market that favors the lower-season-win player produces a clear value opportunity on the home side at the quoted price. Odds used for EV calculation: 2.35 (current moneyline for Coulibaly).

Key factors

• • Coulibaly season record significantly stronger (38-22 vs 28-35)
• • Recent form favors Coulibaly (recent win noted) while Gueymard Wayenburg shows recent losses
• • Market favors Gueymard Wayenburg despite weaker season stats, creating a mispricing