Highlights

• • Ymer's larger sample and better win-loss record suggest an edge vs. market pricing
• • Current price 2.91 for Ymer is above our fair threshold (2.326), producing positive EV

Pros

• + Clear quantitative discrepancy between market-implied probability and player win records
• + Both have poor recent clay form, reducing the market advantage for Diaz Acosta

Cons

• - Limited detail on recent grass-specific performance and no H2H data in the provided research
• - Diaz Acosta is market favourite—upsets are still plausible and volatility on grass is higher

Details

We see the market strongly favours Facundo Diaz Acosta (implied ~70.6% at 1.417) while Elias Ymer is priced at 2.91 (implied ~34.4%). From the provided profiles Ymer has a substantially larger sample (66 matches, 35-31) and a higher career win rate than Diaz Acosta (27 matches, 10-17). Both players have experience on grass and both show recent losses on clay, so recent form does not clearly favour the market pick. Given Ymer's superior overall record and comparable grass experience, the market appears to overestimate Diaz Acosta’s true win probability. We estimate Ymer's true win probability at 43%, which requires minimum fair odds of ~2.326. At the current offered 2.91 there is positive value: EV = 0.43 * 2.91 - 1 = 0.251 (25.1% ROI). We recommend Ymer only because EV > 0 at the current price; caveats include small sample size for Diaz Acosta and lack of H2H or recent grass-specific form detail, which increase uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Market implies Diaz Acosta ~70.6% win chance which seems high given his 10-17 overall record
• • Ymer has a stronger overall record (35-31 across 66 matches) and experience on grass
• • Both players show recent losses on clay—recent form is weak for both and not a clear edge