Elias Ymer vs Sandro Kopp
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Sandro Kopp at 2.10 — our 56% win estimate makes this a +17.6% EV opportunity versus the market price.
Highlights
- • Bookmakers favor Elias at 1.70, but our model favors Kopp based on form and win-rate
- • Minimum fair odds to back Kopp are ~1.786; current market (2.10) offers clear value
Pros
- + Positive expected value (≈17.6% ROI) at current odds
- + Kopp's stronger season record and current event participation indicate higher win probability
Cons
- - No head-to-head data provided — matchup specifics could alter probability
- - Tennis matches on clay can be volatile; form swings and match-up styles can produce upsets
Details
We believe Sandro Kopp is undervalued by the market. Kopp's career win-rate and recent season record (48-28) are substantially stronger than Elias Ymer's (35-31), and both players are competing on clay where neither has a clear surface disadvantage. Ymer shows a couple of recent losses in late-2025 events indicating a dip in form, while Kopp is actively contesting the Bad Waltersdorf event. The market gives Elias a 58.8% implied chance (1.70) whereas the away price of 2.10 implies only a 47.6% chance; based on comparative form and win-rate we estimate Kopp's true win probability at 56.0%, which produces a positive expected value at the current 2.10 price.
Key factors
- • Sandro Kopp higher season/career win-rate (48-28) vs Elias Ymer (35-31)
- • Both players are on clay, minimizing surface-driven advantage
- • Elias Ymer shows recent losses suggesting a form dip entering this event