Highlights

• • Renard’s career and recent form are weak relative to the heavy favorite price
• • Market-implied probability (83%) is far above our estimate (33%) — no value

Pros

• + We base probability on concrete career and recent-match win rates from provided research
• + We avoid betting when the market price is clearly inconsistent with available data

Cons

• - Opponent (Hajar Crinebouch) data is not provided, creating uncertainty in our estimate
• - There may be unreported factors (injury, walkover, local info) that justify the market price

Details

We estimate Elise Renard's true chance to win this match at ~33%. The market price (home 1.20 => implied 83.3%) implies she is an overwhelming favorite; that implied probability is far above what her career record (10-22, ~31%) and recent match losses suggest. Given the large divergence and the absence of supporting form or opponent weakness in the provided research, we do not see value on the heavy home price. The required fair odds for our estimate would be about 3.03 decimal, so current prices are strongly negative-expected-value relative to our model. Uncertainty about the opponent and any unreported factors prevents us from assuming the market is simply mispriced in home’s favor, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Career win rate low (10-22, ~31%) indicating weak baseline performance
• • Recent form shows consecutive losses on hard courts in early September
• • Market strongly favors home (implied 83%) which conflicts with available performance data