Elise Mertens vs Elsa Jacquemot
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given nearly identical recent form and no documented advantages for Mertens, Jacquemot at 3.82 represents value versus the market-implied price; we estimate a 33% true win chance yielding ~26% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Both players show similar records and recent losses in the provided data
- • Current price for Jacquemot (3.82) exceeds our minimum required odds (3.03) for value
Pros
- + Large gap between market-implied probability and our estimated true probability
- + No research-backed reason provided for the heavy favoritism on Mertens
Cons
- - Both players are in poor form, increasing match unpredictability
- - Our estimate is conservative but still subjective due to limited data
Details
We find value on Elsa Jacquemot at the current moneyline (3.82). The available player profiles show nearly identical recent records and surfaces played (both 10-21, active on hard and clay) and both arrive in poor recent form; there is no clear evidence in the provided research that Elise Mertens should be priced as a ~77% favorite. The market appears to over-weight Mertens despite essentially matched form indicators, so we estimate Jacquemot's true win probability substantially above the market-implied 26.2%. Using a conservative true probability of 33%, the required decimal odds for +EV are ~3.03; the available 3.82 therefore offers meaningful value (EV = 0.33*3.82 - 1 = +0.261). We note no injury or surface advantage information in the provided research to justify the short favorite price, which supports backing the underdog at current prices.
Key factors
- • Profiles show near-identical recent records and surface experience (both 10-21; clay and hard)
- • Market-implied probability for Mertens (77%) is not supported by the provided form data
- • No injury or surface advantage documented in the research to justify the short favorite price