Elise Mertens vs Elsa Jacquemot
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Elsa Jacquemot at 3.20 — our estimated win probability of 42% yields a +34.4% ROI versus the market price.
Highlights
- • Market likely overprices Mertens given the provided data
- • Current away odds (3.20) are well above our fair threshold (2.381)
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at the quoted price (0.344)
- + Research shows no decisive advantage for the favorite to justify 1.35
Cons
- - High uncertainty: small sample, limited detail, and symmetric profiles increase variance
- - If undisclosed factors (fitness, matchup specifics, recent momentum) favor Mertens, EV could evaporate
Details
The market prices Elise Mertens as a heavy favorite at 1.35 (implied ~74%), but the available player profiles show essentially identical recent records (both 10-21) and similar recent results on clay/hard with no clear injury or form advantage. Given the lack of a meaningful edge for Mertens in the research, we judge the market is overstating her win probability. We estimate Elsa Jacquemot's true win probability at 42% (decimal 0.42). At the current away price of 3.20 this produces positive expected value: EV = 0.42 * 3.20 - 1 = +0.344 (34.4% ROI). The minimum fair decimal odds to break even on our probability is 2.381, well below the available 3.20, so the away line represents value under our assessment. We acknowledge high uncertainty due to limited and symmetric data, but based on quoted prices the away side offers a profitable edge.
Key factors
- • Market implies ~74% for Mertens, which looks overstated given symmetric recent records
- • Both players show identical documented win-loss (10-21) and similar surfaces (clay/hard)
- • No injury or H2H information in research to justify the heavy favorite price