Eliska Tichackova vs Nikola Breckova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the away player (Nikola Breckova) at 2.35 because the market overstates the home favorite given near-identical player profiles; estimated EV ≈ +6.9%.
Highlights
- • Bookmaker implies 42.6% for the away player; our estimate is 45.5%
- • Required fair odds to break even are ~2.198; current quote 2.35 offers value
Pros
- + Positive expected value at available market price
- + Decision driven by symmetric player data and absence of clear differentiators
Cons
- - Very limited and low-quality dataset; small-sample risk is significant
- - Market may contain non-public information (practice/injury) not present in sources
Details
We compare the market prices to the limited available player data. The current moneyline implies a 64.9% win chance for the home player (1/1.54) and a 42.6% chance for the away player (1/2.35). The published player profiles show essentially identical career spans (2024-09-30 to 2025-09-08), identical overall records (10-21), and similar recent form on hard and clay with no reported injuries or notable edges. Given symmetric metrics and no clear on-court advantage for the nominal home player, we view the bookmaker favoring the home player as market bias rather than informational difference. We estimate Nikola Breckova's true win probability around 45.5%, which is materially above the implied 42.6% from the 2.35 price. At decimal 2.35, EV = 0.455 * 2.35 - 1 = +0.06925 (≈ +6.9% ROI), so the away price represents positive expected value. Odds used for EV calculation: 2.35.
Key factors
- • Both players show near-identical career records (10-21) and recent form on similar surfaces
- • Market heavily favors the home player (1.54) despite symmetric available data
- • No reported injuries or clear surface/head-to-head advantage to justify the market gap