Elizabeth Coleman vs Zeel Desai
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value: both players appear closely matched and current prices do not offer positive expected value; we'd need odds >=2.00 on either side to justify a bet.
Highlights
- • Implied market probabilities: Home 51.2%, Away 57.3%
- • Our estimated true probability for the home player is ~50%, requiring >=2.00 odds for value
Pros
- + Clear, conservative assessment avoiding marginal markets
- + Decision driven by parity in records and recent results
Cons
- - Limited data depth (no H2H, limited surface-specific evidence)
- - Small market inefficiencies could exist that are not exploitable at current prices
Details
We estimate this matchup as essentially coin-flip based on the available profiles: both players have identical overall records (10-21), similar recent form (multiple recent losses) and both have been playing on clay and hard with no clear edge indicated in the research. The market currently prices the away player (Zeel Desai) as the favorite at 1.746 (implied 57.3%) and the home player (Elizabeth Coleman) at 1.952 (implied 51.2%). We believe those implied probabilities overstate a clear edge for either player. Our best estimate for the true win probability for Coleman is ~50.0%; at that probability the fair decimal price would be 2.000. At the available home price of 1.952 the expected return is slightly negative (EV = 0.50*1.952 - 1 = -0.024), and the away price (1.746) is even worse value versus our assessment. Therefore there is no positive expected value on either side at current widely-available prices.
Key factors
- • Both players have identical overall records (10-21) and similar match counts
- • Recent form for both shows multiple losses with no clear momentum advantage
- • Market prices favor the away player materially despite no clear evidence of superiority