Highlights

• • Market favors Mandlik despite weaker recent form in the provided data
• • Pigossi's experience justifies a higher true win probability than the 38% implied by 2.62

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds (EV ≈ +0.205)
• + Pigossi's deep experience reduces matchup volatility and supports our probability estimate

Cons

• - Limited head-to-head and contextual data in the research increases uncertainty
• - Both players have recent losses, so form is mixed and upsets are possible

Details

We find value on Laura Pigossi at 2.62. The market currently favors Elizabeth Mandlik (1.513) despite Mandlik's poor recent win rate (10-21) and limited match sample in the provided data. Pigossi is a high-volume, experienced professional with a long career record (559-507) and proven play on clay and hard courts; that experience typically reduces variance and improves match-win probability versus a less-established opponent. Both players show recent losses, but Pigossi's depth of matches and surface versatility suggest a materially higher true win probability than the market-implied 38.2% for 2.62. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 46%, the bet on Pigossi yields a positive EV (0.46 * 2.62 - 1 = +0.205), indicating the current price offers value. We therefore recommend backing the away player only because EV > 0 at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Mandlik's poor recent win-loss record (10-21) and limited match sample in the provided data
• • Pigossi's extensive experience and overall career wins, indicating lower variance and higher matchup competence
• • Surface versatility (both have clay/hard history) but Pigossi's longer-term proven performance on clay