Elizabeth Evans vs Viola Bedini
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Viola Bedini at 1.538 shows value versus Elizabeth Evans given Evans' weak record and form; we estimate Bedini’s win probability at ~72%, yielding a positive EV (~0.107).
Highlights
- • Book price 1.538 implies 65% — we estimate 72%
- • Minimum fair odds to break even on our estimate: 1.389 (current 1.538 > 1.389)
Pros
- + Clear mismatch based on documented poor form for Evans
- + Decent margin between our probability estimate and market-implied probability
Cons
- - No direct data provided on Viola Bedini's recent form or injuries (limits confidence)
- - Single-match volatility in ITF events can still produce upsets despite probability edge
Details
We find value backing the away player (Viola Bedini) at the current decimal 1.538. The bookmaker-implied probability at 1.538 is ~65.0% (1/1.538). Our assessment, based on Elizabeth Evans' documented career form (10–21 overall, roughly 32% career win rate) and very poor recent results (effectively 1 win in her last 10 matches), indicates Evans is significantly disadvantaged. With no contradictory injury or surface data provided for the away player, it is reasonable to project a materially higher win probability for Bedini. We conservatively estimate Bedini's true win probability at 72%, which is well above the market-implied 65% and produces a positive expected value at the quoted price.
Key factors
- • Elizabeth Evans' poor overall record (10–21) and low recent form (only ~1 win in last 10)
- • Book market implies 65% for the away player; our conservative estimate is 72%, creating value
- • No injury or surface advantage information provided to counter the form differential