Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: ~87.0% (1.15)
• • Our estimated probability: 90.0% → positive EV of ~3.5% at current odds

Pros

• + Clear negative indicators for the underdog (low career win rate, recent losses)
• + Current book price (1.15) offers a small but real edge versus our probability estimate

Cons

• - Limited direct data on Elizabeth Jurna in the provided material increases model uncertainty
• - Edge is modest (EV ~3.5%), so variance can still produce losing outcomes

Details

We assess value on the home moneyline (Elizabeth Jurna) because the market price of 1.15 implies ~87.0% chance, while the available evidence on the underdog (Juliette Mazzoni) points to a substantially lower likelihood of beating a top-line opponent. Mazzoni's career record (10-22, ~31% career win rate) and recent form (consecutive losses at Cassis and Rennes on hard courts) indicate she is in poor form and unlikely to upset a clear favorite. Given this, we estimate Jurna's true win probability at 90.0%, which is meaningfully higher than the bookmaker-implied probability; at the current decimal price of 1.15 this yields positive expected value. The edge is not huge, but it is a clear value gap once we account for Mazzoni's weak form and limited success on tour.

Key factors

• • Juliette Mazzoni career win rate 10-22 (~31%) indicating overall low win propensity
• • Recent form: back-to-back losses (Cassis and Rennes on hard courts) suggesting confidence/level issues
• • Market price (home 1.15 => implied ~87.0%) is lower than our estimated true probability (90%), creating a small positive edge