Highlights

• • Market underestimates Pigossi's win chances relative to her career profile
• • Mandlik's recent results and limited sample size increase uncertainty on her favorability

Pros

• + Significant experience and better baseline win rate for Pigossi
• + Current odds (2.50) imply a lower probability than our model, producing positive EV

Cons

• - Mandlik is listed as home and is priced as the favorite, indicating market support
• - Limited specific match-level data (recent head-to-head, injuries, exact surface confirmation) increases uncertainty

Details

We believe Laura Pigossi represents value at the available price. The market-implied probability for Pigossi at 2.50 is 40.0%, but our estimate (48.0%) factors her long-term winning record and greater experience on clay compared with Elizabeth Mandlik's limited and poorer recent record (Mandlik ~32% recent win rate). Pigossi's career longevity and higher baseline win rate suggest she is underpriced versus the raw odds; converting our probability into EV yields a positive expected return at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Pigossi's much larger career sample and higher overall win rate (~52.5%) versus Mandlik's recent record (~32%)
• • Surface suitability and experience advantage for Pigossi in Sao Paulo (likely clay conditions)
• • Market-implied probability (40%) is below our estimated true probability (48%), creating positive EV