Ellen Perez / Fanny Stollar vs Jaqueline Adina Cristian / Su-Wei Hsieh

Highlights

• • Home implied probability: ~66.3% (1.508); our estimate: 52%
• • Required fair odds for value: ~1.923; current price falls short

Pros

• + We remain conservative given scant data and avoid overbetting on market favorite.
• + Clear numeric gap between market-implied probability and our estimate simplifies the decision to stand aside.

Cons

• - Research is limited and non-doubles-specific, so our probability has higher uncertainty than usual.
• - If there are unreported factors (established pairing, fitness, local conditions) they could invalidate our conservative estimate.

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.508 implies ~66.3% win probability) to our assessment based only on the provided player profiles. The research shows nearly identical, limited recent form data for all four players (10-21 records listed, no doubles-specific form or H2H), so we assign a conservative true-win probability of 52% to the home pair based on small edge from home designation and pairing familiarity implied by listing. At that probability the fair price is ~1.923 decimal, meaning the current home quote of 1.508 is significantly overpriced by the market for bettors and offers negative expected value. With the sparse, uniform data provided we cannot justify a probability above the market-implied 66% needed to generate positive EV, so we do not recommend backing either side at the listed prices.

Key factors

• • Provided player profiles show similar limited recent records (10-21) for all four players, giving no clear performance edge.
• • Market implies home win probability (~66.3%) well above our conservative estimate (52%), creating negative EV at current price.
• • No doubles-specific form, recent partnership history, injuries, or H2H data present in the research to justify moving our probability higher.