Highlights

• • Home implied chance (1.14) ≈ 87.7%; our conservative estimate is 85%
• • At 1.14 the EV is negative (-0.031 for a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Clear market signal that the home player is heavily favoured
• + If additional positive info emerges (injury to opponent or strong form evidence) the estimate could be revised

Cons

• - Current price on the favourite is shorter than our conservative fair value — no value
• - Lack of publicly available match-specific data increases uncertainty and downside risk

Details

We compared the market moneyline (Home 1.14, Away 5.25) to a conservative estimated true probability for the pre-match favourite. The market-implied probability for Ellie Daniels at 1.14 is ~87.7%. Given no independent form, surface, injury, or H2H data, we conservatively estimate Ellie Daniels' true win probability at 85.0%. At that estimate the fair decimal price would be ~1.176; the offered 1.14 is shorter than fair and produces a negative expected value. The away price (5.25) would require an implausibly high true upset probability (~19.0% implied) for value; with no evidence to support that, we do not see positive EV on either side. Therefore we recommend no bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for the home favourite (1.14) is ~87.7%, very short
• • No independent data on recent form, injuries, surface or H2H to justify moving true probability above implied
• • Conservative true-probability estimate (85%) produces a fair price ~1.176, making current price unattractive