Ellie Schoppe vs Melis Rasim
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Research shows no informational edge and the favorite is overpriced at 1.08; we recommend no bet because current prices produce negative EV against our probability estimate.
Highlights
- • Home price 1.08 implies ~92.6% win probability, which is inconsistent with available profile data
- • Both players have poor recent form and identical records; nothing supports such a large market gap
Pros
- + If further information emerges (injury to away, confirmed ranking gap), market could be correct and a quick reassessment would be warranted
- + The away price (7.0) would be attractive only if we had strong evidence the away win chance is >>45%
Cons
- - No clear evidence in the research to support a >92% probability for the favorite
- - Big market discrepancy likely reflects information not present in our sources (e.g., ranking, seeding, withdrawals), making a blind contrarian bet risky
Details
Both players' publicly available profiles show effectively identical records (10-21) and similar recent form, with no injury or surface edge indicated in the research. The market has priced the home player, Ellie Schoppe, at 1.08 (implied ~92.6%), which we view as a clear overstatement of her true win probability given symmetric evidence. Our estimated true win probability for the home player is 55%; at that level the home price of 1.08 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.55*1.08 - 1 = -0.406). Conversely the away price of 7.0 would only be a value bet if we believed the away win probability exceeded ~14.3%, which is almost certainly true, but to justify wagering we would need to be confident the away true probability substantially exceeds 1 - 0.55 = 0.45 (which would imply the bookmaker is massively wrong). Given available information shows no clear advantage for either player, we cannot justify a bet at current market prices and therefore recommend no action.
Key factors
- • Profiles show near-identical records and recent results for both players (10-21), suggesting roughly even matchup
- • No injuries, surface advantage, or H2H information in the research that would materially shift probabilities
- • Market heavily favors the home player at 1.08 — we assess this as significant overpricing versus available evidence