Highlights

• • Tikhonova is the stronger, more experienced player across surfaces
• • Current favorite price (1.412) offers negative EV against our probability estimate

Pros

• + Clear analytical edge in experience and historical win-rate favoring Tikhonova
• + Market is pricing Tikhonova as a strong favorite, which aligns with fundamentals (no overlay to exploit)

Cons

• - Schoppe's limited sample size and improving young-player upside could produce an upset variance
• - Both players have recent losses, so short-term volatility could affect outcome

Details

We value this line and find no positive edge at the current prices. Anastasia Tikhonova is a heavy experienced professional (career 559-507 across surfaces, including clay and hard) while Ellie Schoppe is early in her career with a 10-21 record and limited match wins. Both profiles show recent losses, but the experience and broader surface range strongly favor Tikhonova. The market prices Tikhonova at 1.412 (implied 70.8%). We estimate Tikhonova's true win probability around 65% given her superior track record and likely tactical/experience edge on clay/hard; that estimate produces a negative expected value at 1.412 (EV = 0.65*1.412 - 1 = -0.082). To generate value we would need at least 1.538 on Tikhonova. Conversely, backing Schoppe at 2.71 would require her true win probability > 36.9% (we judge her win chance below that level given her 10-21 record and limited high-level match wins). Therefore neither side offers positive expected value versus the available odds.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Tikhonova has extensive tour-level match history versus Schoppe's early-career record
• • Recent form: both show recent losses, but Tikhonova's baseline win-rate and surface experience give her the edge
• • Market pricing: favorite is priced at ~70.8% implied; our estimated true probability (~65%) implies no value