Highlights

• • Schoppe career win-rate = 32.26% (10-21 over 31 matches)
• • Backing away at 3.09 yields ~+109% ROI using that baseline (high theoretical edge)

Pros

• + Large numerical edge versus the market if Schoppe's career win-rate is a good baseline
• + Current price (3.09) is well above the minimum required decimal odds (~1.476) to be profitable under our estimate

Cons

• - No direct stats or form information provided for Anna Pircher — recommendation relies on a negative baseline for Schoppe rather than positive data for Pircher
• - Small sample of Schoppe's career and recent match context may not capture matchup specifics, injuries, or surface suitability

Details

We base our projection on Ellie Schoppe's available career record (10-21 across 31 matches = 32.26% win rate). The market currently prices Schoppe as a clear favorite at 1.382 (implied ~72.3%), which conflicts sharply with her career win percentage and recent string of losses. Taking Schoppe's historical win-rate as the best available baseline implies Anna Pircher's win probability ≈ 67.74% (1 - 0.3226). At the current away price of 3.09 this produces positive edge (EV = 0.6774 * 3.09 - 1 ≈ +1.094). Given the large disparity between implied market probability for Schoppe and her documented performance, we identify value on the away side, while noting the recommendation rests on limited data (no direct Pircher stats provided) and therefore carries elevated model risk.

Key factors

• • Ellie Schoppe career win rate is 10/31 = 32.26%, indicating she is typically not the favorite
• • Market pricing (Schoppe 1.382, implied ~72.3%) is inconsistent with her documented results and recent losses
• • No data provided for Anna Pircher, so value inference is driven by the mismatch between Schoppe's record and the market