Elsa Jacquemot vs Tatjana Maria

Highlights

• • Jacquemot is favorite at 1.65 but our true-win estimate (~55%) does not justify that price
• • Maria would need >47.2% true chance to be value at 2.12; available data does not support that

Pros

• + We use conservative probability estimates based strictly on provided records and recent form
• + Clear decision to avoid wagering when no positive EV exists

Cons

• - Research is limited and lacks head-to-head, injury, or surface-specific performance detail
• - If additional information (practice reports, draw position, surface confirmation) surfaces, the value view could change

Details

We reviewed the available profiles for Elsa Jacquemot and Tatjana Maria: both show identical recent records (10-21 across 31 matches) and weak recent form with multiple losses. The market prices (Jacquemot 1.65, Maria 2.12) imply a clear edge to the home player (implied ~60.6% for Jacquemot). Given the near-identical records and lack of any surface-specific or head-to-head data in the provided research, we assess the match as much closer than the market implies. Our best estimate of Jacquemot's true win probability is ~55%; at the current favorite price of 1.65 that produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.55*1.65 - 1 ≈ -0.093). The away price (2.12) would require an estimated true win probability >47.17% to be profitable; we estimate Maria's chance below that threshold given mirrored form and no clear advantages. Therefore there is no positive EV on either side at the quoted prices and we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players show near-identical season record (10-21) and poor recent form
• • Market favors Jacquemot heavily (1.65) despite profiles offering no clear advantage
• • No surface/H2H details in provided data to justify an edge versus market price