Elsa Jacquemot vs Emiliana Arango
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find modest value on Emiliana Arango at 2.25 because the market overstates Jacquemot's advantage; our 48% estimate yields roughly an 8% expected ROI.
Highlights
- • Market implied probability for Arango: ~44.4%
- • Our estimated true probability for Arango: 48.0% → positive EV at current odds
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at the quoted 2.25 price based on our probability estimate
- + Both players' form and surfaces are similar, supporting a tighter true probability than market pricing
Cons
- - Edge is modest (≈8% ROI) and sensitive to small changes in probability estimates
- - Limited public information (no H2H, no clear surface/venue advantage) increases uncertainty
Details
We see the market pricing Elsa Jacquemot at 1.64 (implied ~61.0%) and Emiliana Arango at 2.25 (implied ~44.4%). The available data shows both players with nearly identical recent records (10-21) and similar surface activity (clay and hard) with no clear injury or head-to-head information to materially separate them. Given the parity in form and surfaces, we view the true win probability as much closer to a coin flip than the market implies; we assign Arango a 48.0% win probability versus the market's 44.4%. At decimal odds 2.25 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.48 * 2.25 - 1 = 0.08, or +8% ROI). The value arises from the market over-weighting the home/favorite tag for Jacquemot despite near-identical recent performance metrics. We acknowledge limited data and uncertainty, so the edge is modest but actionable at the quoted price.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical recent records (10-21) and similar surface experience
- • Market implies Arango win chance of ~44.4% vs our estimated 48%, creating value
- • No clear injury or H2H data to justify the market's larger favoring of the home player