Elvina Kalieva / Gabriela Lee vs Anastasia Tikhonova / Tara Wuerth
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given limited doubles-specific information and conservative probability estimates, the available home price (2.39) does not offer positive expected value versus our 40% win estimate, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Away side priced at 1.498 (~66.8% implied) by market
- • Home needs >=2.50 to be +EV versus our 40% estimate
Pros
- + Conservative stance avoids backing bets on limited/ambiguous data
- + Clear numeric threshold provided (2.50) to signal value if odds shift
Cons
- - If our true probability underestimates home strength, a missed +EV opportunity could occur
- - Lack of doubles form and H2H increases uncertainty
Details
We find insufficient evidence of a reliable edge for either pairing given the supplied player records and the lack of doubles-specific form or H2H. The market prices the Anastasia Tikhonova / Tara Wuerth pairing as a clear favorite at 1.498 (implied ~66.8%). The raw profiles for all four players show similar, modest recent singles results and no clear advantage for the home pairing (Elvina Kalieva / Gabriela Lee). Conservatively, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 40% (0.40). At that probability the fair decimal price for the home side would be 2.50 (1 / 0.40). The current home price of 2.39 is below that threshold, producing a slightly negative expected value (EV = 0.40 * 2.39 - 1 = -0.044), so we do not recommend a bet. Given the ambiguous data and lack of doubles-specific form, we prefer to avoid taking a position rather than chase small edges based on incomplete information.
Key factors
- • Market strongly favors the away pairing (1.498 => ~66.8% implied)
- • Available player profiles show similar modest recent results; no clear doubles edge
- • Our conservative true probability (40%) implies fair odds 2.50, above current home price