Highlights

• • Market heavily overprices Elza (1.02) relative to her documented results.
• • Conservative estimate of Lena at 8% makes 13.0 a slight value.

Pros

• + Observable disconnect between market odds and documented favorite form.
• + Decent payout for a small probability that gives positive EV even with conservative assumptions.

Cons

• - Very limited information on the away player increases uncertainty of the probability estimate.
• - Small edge (EV ≈ 4%) with high variance — outcome is still unlikely and volatile.

Details

Market prices Elza Tomase at 1.02 (implied ~98.04%) and Lena Cuoto at 13.0 (implied ~7.69%). Elza's publicly available career record (10-22, ~31% career win rate) and recent string of losses make a near-certain market pricing implausible. We conservatively estimate Lena's true win probability at 8.0% — above the market-implied 7.69% but not large — because the favorite's form and limited match wins argue the market is overstating Elza's certainty. At that estimate, the away line of 13.0 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.08*13 - 1 = 0.04). We use a conservative probability given sparse opponent data and the short-format variance of lower-tier tennis, so the edge is small but present.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities: Home 98.04%, Away 7.69%
• • Elza Tomase career record 10-22 (≈31%), recent form showing multiple losses
• • Sparse data on Lena Cuoto increases uncertainty but current odds (13.0) slightly exceed conservative fair odds