Highlights

• • Beraldo market implied probability (~80.6%) is inconsistent with his 3-10 record (~23.1%).
• • Home odds 4.31 exceed our break-even odds (3.333) for the estimated win probability.

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market pricing and documented form for Beraldo creates clear value.
• + Current home odds provide a positive EV at our conservative probability estimate.

Cons

• - Very limited direct information on Emanuele Mazzeschi increases model uncertainty.
• - If unreported factors (injury, surface preference, ranking gaps) favor Beraldo, our probability estimate could be too optimistic.

Details

We find clear value backing the home player, Emanuele Mazzeschi, at the available price. The market heavily favors Lorenzo Beraldo at 1.24 (implied win probability ~80.6%), but the only performance data provided for Beraldo shows a 3-10 career record (win rate ~23.1%) with recent losses on clay at M25 events. That discrepancy suggests the market price for Beraldo is overstated relative to his demonstrated form and results. With no adverse information on Mazzeschi provided, a conservative estimate gives Mazzeschi a ~30% true chance to win; at decimal odds 4.31 this produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.30 * 4.31 - 1 = 0.293). We remain cautious due to limited info on the home player and lack of H2H/surface-confirmed context, but the current price materially exceeds the minimum fair odds for our probability estimate (min required decimal odds 3.333), so we recommend the home side as a value bet.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Beraldo (1.24) implying ~80.6% win chance, which conflicts with his 3-10 career record (~23.1% win rate).
• • Recent documented form for Beraldo shows consecutive losses on clay at M25 events, weakening his favorite status.
• • No negative information provided on Mazzeschi and current home price (4.31) implies ~23.2% market chance — likely underestimates his probability.