Emiliana Arango vs Iva Jovic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Emiliana Arango at 2.66 because the players appear closely matched despite the market favoring Jovic; Arango's implied probability is underpriced relative to our 45% estimate.
Highlights
- • Both players show similar records and surface profiles
- • Arango priced at 2.66 yields ~19.7% ROI vs our probability estimate
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at current odds based on conservative probability estimate
- + Players' comparable records support a tighter true probability than the market implies
Cons
- - Research data is limited and truncated—higher uncertainty around form and matchup details
- - Finals can be high-variance; one-match outcomes subject to volatility and unobserved factors
Details
We see both players with nearly identical career records and surface profiles, indicating matchup parity. The market prices Iva Jovic at 1.521 (≈65.7% implied) and Emiliana Arango at 2.66 (≈37.6% implied). Given the near-identical form and lack of clear edge in the research, we estimate Arango's true win probability substantially above the market-implied 37.6%, because the two players' records and surfaces suggest a much closer contest. Using a conservative true probability of 45%, the current Arango price (2.66) offers positive expected value (EV = 0.45*2.66 - 1 = 0.197). We therefore recommend backing Arango at current widely available odds, noting uncertainty from limited informational detail and tournament-specific form.
Key factors
- • Near-identical career records and surface experience for both players
- • Market implies a clear favorite, but research shows little evidence of a material edge
- • Finals volatility and limited match-level detail increase uncertainty