Highlights

• • Arango: career win rate ~52.4% across 1,066 matches
• • Linette: limited sample with ~32.3% win rate across 31 matches

Pros

• + Clear career-performance edge and much larger data sample for Arango
• + Surface versatility reduces matchup risk on hard courts
• + Market price (2.55) understates Arango's likely chances

Cons

• - Recent-results noise: both players recorded recent losses on hard, increasing variance
• - Limited direct head-to-head and contextual match details increase model uncertainty

Details

The market makes Magda Linette a clear favorite (away 1.49 implied ~67%), but the compiled career data favor Emiliana Arango: Arango has a much longer career sample with a higher lifetime win rate (559-507 ≈ 52.4%) versus Linette's smaller sample and weaker win rate (10-21 ≈ 32.3%). Both show recent losses on hard courts, removing a clear recent-form edge for Linette, while Arango's demonstrated surface versatility (Clay, Carpet, Grass, Hard) reduces matchup risk. Normalizing career win rates puts Arango substantially ahead; after conservatively adjusting for recent form parity we estimate Arango's true win probability at 55%. At the available home price of 2.55 (implied 39.2%) this represents positive expected value: EV = 0.55*2.55 - 1 = +0.4025 (≈40.3% ROI). Given the discrepancy between our 55% estimate and the market's ~39% probability, Arango is the value play.

Key factors

• • Arango's substantially larger career sample and higher lifetime win rate
• • Arango's demonstrated surface versatility versus Linette's limited match sample
• • Both players show recent losses on hard courts, reducing Linette's short-term edge