Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Linette (1.37) despite limited supporting sample
• • Arango's wider career record and multi-surface experience justify a higher true probability

Pros

• + Arango's larger match experience and career win rate suggest resilience
• + Current price (3.10) offers a clear mathematical edge vs our probability

Cons

• - Recent match data shows both players lost their latest events, increasing uncertainty
• - Lack of H2H and more granular injury/fitness info raises variance

Details

We believe Emiliana Arango is underpriced by the market. The book lists Magda Linette at 1.37 (implied ~73.0%) and Arango at 3.10 (implied ~32.3%). Our read of the available profiles shows Arango with a long, positive career sample (559-507 across many surfaces) versus Linette's much smaller, losing sample (10-21). Both players show recent losses, but Arango's larger body of work and demonstrated competence on hard surfaces increases the likelihood she can upset a short-priced favorite. We estimate Arango's true win probability at 36.0%, which is meaningfully above the market-implied 32.3% for the 3.10 quote. At the current Arango price (3.10) that converts to EV = 0.36*3.10 - 1 = +0.116 (11.6% ROI). Given the limited and noisy recent form data for both players and Linette's small career sample, the market appears to overreact to short-term results and underestimates Arango's chance.

Key factors

• • Arango's much larger career sample and positive overall win rate
• • Linette's small sample (10-21) may exaggerate recent form effects
• • Both players show recent losses, reducing form advantage for the favorite