Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Linette (1.37) despite weaker career record in the provided data
• • Arango's 3.10 price requires only ~32.3% true chance to break even; we estimate 37%

Pros

• + Clear positive EV based on provided career records and surface compatibility
• + Reasonable margin between our probability estimate and market-implied probability

Cons

• - Research lacks up-to-the-minute injury, H2H and live-form details that could alter probabilities
• - Linette's small sample size and unusual career data introduce uncertainty and variance

Details

We compare the market price (Arango 3.10, implied win probability 32.3%) to our estimate of Arango's true chance. The provided player data shows Emiliana Arango with a much larger career sample and a positive overall win rate (559-507, ~52.6%) while Magda Linette's record in the dataset is 10-21 (~32% wins) across a small sample. Both players have experience on hard courts and recent results shown are losses for each, so short-term form is inconclusive. Given Arango's superior historical win rate, broader experience and surface competence, we estimate her true win probability at 37.0%, which is materially higher than the market-implied 32.3% for the 3.10 price. Using that probability produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.37 * 3.10 - 1 = +0.147), so the Arango moneyline appears to offer value. We remain cautious due to limited contextual details (injuries, H2H, up-to-date form) and the small sample for Linette, which raises variance risk.

Key factors

• • Arango's much larger career sample and higher overall win rate
• • Linette's small sample and sub-.500 record in the provided data
• • Both players have hard-court experience; recent short-term results are inconclusive