Highlights

• • Demanet far more experienced and winning in the provided sample
• • Uta listed as 0-8 in the research, indicating a substantial quality gap

Pros

• + Market price is slightly softer than our conservative probability—creates a small positive EV
• + Recent matches in the research for both players are on clay, a surface where Demanet has recorded wins

Cons

• - Edge is small; outcome variance in single-match tennis is high despite the favorite status
• - Research samples are limited for Uta (only 8 matches), so there is model risk if missing context alters true probability

Details

We compare the bookmaker pricing to our estimate of the true win probability. The market prices Emilien Demanet at 1.05 (implied probability ~95.24%). Demanet's career sample in the research (37-26 across 63 matches) and recent clay activity show meaningful experience and wins, while Daniel Uta appears 0-8 in the provided record and has only 8 matches listed, with recent losses on clay. Given the large disparity in experience, form and match wins, we estimate Demanet's true win probability materially above the book's implied 95.24%. Using a conservative true probability of 97.5%, the bet at 1.05 yields a small positive expected value. The value is marginal (low single-digit ROI) and depends on the reliability of the small-sample signals for Uta, so we flag the pick as low-to-medium risk but with a modest edge.

Key factors

• • Home (Demanet) has substantially larger match sample and better career win-loss (37-26) vs Away (Uta) 0-8
• • Both players show recent clay activity in the research, but Demanet has recorded wins while Uta shows consecutive losses
• • Bookmaker implied probability for Demanet (95.24%) is slightly below our conservative true estimate (97.5%), creating marginal positive EV