Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Demanet (75.9%) is well above our estimate (62%)
• • Required odds (~1.613) to create positive EV are substantially higher than the available 1.316

Pros

• + Demanet has a noticeably better overall win-loss record
• + More match volume and wins recently compared with Cazacu

Cons

• - Both players lack recorded grass-court evidence, increasing outcome uncertainty
• - Market offers low payout on favorite; current odds do not compensate for risk

Details

We estimate Emilien Demanet is the stronger player on paper (better overall record and more wins recently) but both players' recorded activity is almost exclusively on clay and hard courts; neither has demonstrated proven form on grass. The market prices Demanet at 1.316 (implied ~75.9% win chance). After adjusting for surface uncertainty, limited head-to-head information, and mixed recent results for both, we estimate Demanet's true win probability at ~62%. That implies required decimal odds of ~1.613 to breakeven; the current price of 1.316 offers negative expected value, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Surface mismatch: both players have records mainly on clay/hard, unknown grass form
• • Market strongly favors Demanet (implied ~75.9%), which exceeds our estimated probability
• • Overall records favor Demanet but recent form is mixed for both and no H2H available