Highlights

• • Market overprices Emilien Demanet at 1.209 (~82.7% implied).
• • At 4.82 the away offer exceeds our required odds threshold (3.448) for value.

Pros

• + Significant upside: +~39.8% ROI on a 1-unit stake per our model
• + Large gap between market-implied probability and our estimated true probability

Cons

• - Limited, noisy sample sizes and incomplete recency/injury details in the provided data
• - Underdog outcome is higher variance — more likely to lose despite positive EV

Details

We find value on Justin Schlageter (away). The market prices Emilien Demanet as an ~82.7% favorite (1/1.209), which is far higher than the relative head-to-head implied by the players' records and recent form in the provided data. Demanet's career win rate in the dataset is ~58.7% (37-26 over 63 matches) while Schlageter's is ~37.9% (11-18 over 29 matches), but those raw win rates do not justify an 82% market probability for Demanet. Given surface overlap (both have clay experience) and Schlageter's ability to win in this event level recently, we conservatively estimate Schlageter's true chance at 29%. At the available decimal price of 4.82 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.29*4.82 - 1 ≈ 0.398). The market-implied probability for the away is ~20.7%, so a 29% true probability represents a meaningful market edge. We recognize sample-size limitations and uncertainty in form/injury details, so we assign a medium risk rating.

Key factors

• • Market implies only ~20.7% for Schlageter (4.82) while our estimate is 29%
• • Demanet's career win rate (~58.7%) doesn't justify an 82.7% match probability
• • Both players have clay experience and recent mixed results, increasing variance