Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Varona = 74.8% vs our estimate 65%
• • Required minimum fair odds for Varona to be +EV = 1.538

Pros

• + Varona has the stronger career record and is the market favorite
• + If Varona's clay form translates to grass, he is the more consistent option

Cons

• - Both players have limited grass-track history, increasing unpredictability
• - Current favorite price (1.338) offers negative expected value vs our probability

Details

We estimate Nicolas Alvarez Varona's true win probability at ~65% on grass given both players' profiles and the available form data. The market price of 1.338 implies a 74.8% win probability (1/1.338 = 0.748), which is materially higher than our estimate. Both players have most of their recent matches on clay/hard and limited grass data, increasing variance; Varona has a stronger overall record and is the clear market favorite, but the current price does not represent value. Using the market odds (1.338) and our 65% probability yields EV = 0.65 * 1.338 - 1 = -0.130 (a -13.0% ROI), so we recommend no bet at these prices. Minimum fair decimal odds to make a Varona bet +EV would be 1 / 0.65 = 1.538 or higher.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Varona (implied 74.8%) but our model estimates significantly lower (~65%)
• • Both players show most recent results on clay/hard; limited grass data increases outcome variance
• • Varona has the stronger overall record and recent form, but price compresses value