Highlights

• • Book implied probability for home: ~75.8% (1.318)
• • Our conservative true probability estimate for home: 65%
• • EV at current home odds is negative (-0.143)

Pros

• + Clear market signal on favourite — if additional positive info appears it could be actionable
• + Conservative modeling reduces chance of overestimating the favourite

Cons

• - Research provided is limited and symmetric across players, making a confident edge hard to justify
• - Current favourite price is too short to offer value under our probability estimate

Details

We find the market prices (Home 1.318 -> implied ~75.8%) overly confident for this doubles matchup given the available research. The publicly supplied player profiles show near-identical career records and recent form that does not demonstrate a clear dominance by the home pairing, so we estimate a materially lower true win probability for Emily Appleton / Isabelle Haverlag than the book implies. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 65% for the home team produces a negative expected value at the current favorite price (EV = 0.65 * 1.318 - 1 = -0.143), so we do not recommend taking the favorite at available prices. There is insufficient objective evidence to justify backing the underdog at 3.21 either (market implies ~31.1% for the away pair, and our assessment does not support a high enough true probability to create value).

Key factors

• • Market strongly favours home (implied ~75.8%) but research shows no clear dominance
• • Player profiles and recent results are nearly identical with no decisive form edge
• • No injury or surface advantage information in the provided data to justify the heavy favourite price