Highlights

• • Emily's much larger match sample and superior career win rate argue for a clear edge
• • Current odds underprice Emily relative to our estimated probability

Pros

• + Strong experience advantage and greater historical consistency
• + Current market price (1.952) offers substantial theoretical edge vs our model

Cons

• - Recent form appears mixed for both players and there is no H2H to refine the estimate
• - Victoria's small-sample volatility could produce an upset in a single match

Details

We see a clear experience and win-rate gap: Emily Appleton has 1066 career matches with a ~52.4% win rate versus Victoria Hu's 31 matches and ~32.3% win rate. Both players have activity on clay and hard, but Emily's long track record and larger sample make her form and surface competence more reliable. The current market price for Emily (1.952) implies ~51.2% probability; we estimate her true chance at ~65% based on career evidence, sample-size contrast, and likely higher consistency in a qualifying match. That makes the home price +EV. We also note uncertainty from recent mixed results and lack of H2H, so we size the edge conservatively.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap (Emily: 1066 matches vs Victoria: 31 matches)
• • Career win-rate differential (Emily ~52.4% vs Victoria ~32.3%)
• • Both have clay/hard experience, favoring the more consistent veteran