Highlights

• • Market favourite (Ane) looks over-priced relative to provided data
• • Home underdog price (4.37) implies a large margin that the research does not justify

Pros

• + Large margin between market price and our estimated fair odds yields significant EV
• + No injury or surface data in research that would validate the heavy favourite

Cons

• - Research is limited and lacks H2H, recent form detail, and contextual tournament info
• - This is a contrarian play against a strong market favourite — higher variance

Details

We see the market pricing Ane Mintegi Del Olmo at 1.237 (implied win probability ~80.9%) while Emily Seibold is offered at 4.37 (implied ~22.9%). The research available shows nearly identical career records and matching recent results with no injury flags, surface advantage, or head-to-head information that would justify such a large gap. Given the lack of evidence supporting an 80%+ chance for Ane, we conservatively estimate Emily's true win probability at 35% (Ane ~65%). At that estimate the fair decimal to break even on Emily is ~2.857; the current price of 4.37 substantially exceeds that threshold, producing meaningful positive expected value. We therefore recommend the home underdog as a value play: the market appears to be over-favouring Ane without supporting data in the provided research.

Key factors

• • Market implies Ane ~80.9% win chance — appears unsupported by provided profiles
• • Both players show similar career records and recent results in the research
• • No injury, surface, or H2H evidence in the given data to justify a large gap
• • Current home price (4.37) is well above our fair-price threshold (~2.857)