Highlights

• • Safwat is the clear market favorite but recent results weaken absolute certainty
• • At 1.05 there is no value unless we believe Safwat’s chance exceeds ~95.2%, which the provided data does not support

Pros

• + Safwat’s long career and overall winning record suggest he should be favored
• + Surface versatility in his career record (has played hard courts) supports competence on typical tournament courts

Cons

• - Two documented recent losses on hard in April 2025 reduce confidence in an almost-certain outcome
• - No information provided about Emirhan Bulut — unknowns could mask upset potential

Details

We estimate Mohamed Safwat is a clear favorite based on his long career and 621-427 record, but the market price of 1.05 (implied ~95.24% win chance) is too short relative to a realistic assessment. The research shows recent losses on hard courts in April 2025, which reduces his near-term certainty. Because we lack any information on Emirhan Bulut in the provided research, we cannot justify assigning Safwat a >95.24% true win probability. Using a conservative, research-grounded true probability of 92.0% yields a minimum fair decimal price of ~1.087; the current market price of 1.05 produces a negative expected value. Therefore there is no value to back Safwat at the quoted odds, and we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Mohamed Safwat has a long career and an overall winning record (621-427), indicating baseline quality
• • Recent form shows losses in April 2025 on hard courts, lowering short-term certainty
• • Market price (1.05) implies an extremely high probability (~95.24%) that is not supported by the provided performance data