Highlights

• • Damm is the clear market favorite but price exceeds our win-probability estimate
• • Lack of documented grass-court experience for both players raises matchup uncertainty

Pros

• + Damm has greater experience and results at higher levels (ATP/US Open participation)
• + Emon has shown solid results at lower-level hard events but with a small sample size

Cons

• - Neither profile documents grass-court form — surface uncertainty increases risk
• - The market price requires Damm to be >78.1% to be +EV; our read is ~74%, so edge is negative

Details

We compare the market price (Martin Damm 1.279, implied ~78.1%) to our estimated true win probability for Damm of 74%. Damm is the clear favorite on paper — far more matches (56 vs 9) and recent ATP-level exposure — but neither player shows documented grass-court track record in the provided data, which reduces confidence in a >78% win chance. At our 74% estimate the favorite does not offer positive expected value at the quoted 1.279 price, so we do not recommend taking the market side.

Key factors

• • Martin Damm has a much larger sample and stronger record (37-19 over 56 matches) compared with Emon (6-3 over 9 matches)
• • Match is on grass but neither player's provided profile shows grass experience, increasing uncertainty
• • Market-implied probability for Damm (~78.1%) exceeds our realistic estimate (74%), so price lacks value