Highlights

• • Home implied probability (0.191) is far below our 30% estimate
• • Current odds (5.23) are well above the 3.333 threshold needed to justify a 30% win chance

Pros

• + Large margin between market odds and our estimated fair odds creates positive EV
• + No researched injury or form advantage for the heavy favorite to justify such a short price

Cons

• - Information in the provided research is limited and lacks head-to-head or context-specific indicators
• - Underdog outcomes remain high-variance; market may have unreported reasons for heavy favorite pricing

Details

We judge the market price (Away 1.149 implied ~87% win chance) to be mispriced given the available data: both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form on comparable surfaces, with no injury information in the research. A fair assessment based on parity and lack of differentiating factors places En Shuo Liang materially above the implied 19.1% chance the market assigns to the home underdog. Using a conservative true-win estimate of 30% for En Shuo Liang against an offered 5.23 decimal price yields positive expected value. We therefore recommend the home upset only because current odds substantially exceed the minimum required odds implied by our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and match volume in the research
• • No injuries or other differentiating information are reported in the provided sources
• • Market heavily favors the away player (implied ~87%), creating a potential pricing anomaly