Highlights

• • Market: Home 1.775 (56.3% implied) vs Away 2.00 (50.0% implied)
• • Our estimated home win probability 52.0% -> needs ≥1.923 odds for positive EV

Pros

• + Market shows a clear favorite which simplifies value comparison
• + Both players have match history on the relevant surfaces (clay/hard)

Cons

• - Profiles provide very limited differentiating data—high model uncertainty
• - Small-sample career records and qualifying-level volatility increase variance

Details

We estimate this match is essentially a toss-up based on the provided profiles: both players show nearly identical records (10-21) and recent form snippets, with no injury flags or H2H edge. The market prices En Shuo Liang as a slight favorite at 1.775 (implied 56.3%) and Diletta Cherubini at 2.00 (implied 50.0%). Given the lack of differentiating information and identical surface experience, we assign En Shuo Liang a true win probability of ~52.0%. At that probability the required fair decimal odds are ~1.923; the offered 1.775 is too short, producing a negative expected value. Similarly, Cherubini would need >2.083 to be a value bet if her true probability were the complement (~48.0%), so the available 2.00 is also slightly short. Therefore no side offers positive EV at current prices.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and recent results (both 10-21)
• • No injury or H2H information to indicate a clear edge
• • Market favors the home player slightly, but pricing is shorter than our fair estimate