Highlights

• • Market implies ~60.2% for Shibahara (1.66) vs our ~55% estimate.
• • Required odds for value on our estimate are >= 1.818; current favorite quote is shorter.

Pros

• + Market has a clear favorite which simplifies value comparison.
• + Both players have recent match data available, allowing a conservative probability estimate.

Cons

• - Research provides almost no differentiating information (identical records/recent matches).
• - No H2H, injury, or concrete surface advantage present to justify a larger edge.

Details

We see both players with nearly identical career records (10-21), identical recent results and surfaces listed (Clay/Hard), and no distinguishing H2H or injury information in the research. The market prices make Ena Shibahara the favorite at 1.66 (implied ~60.2%). Given the limited information and similar form, we assess Shibahara's true win probability at ~55.0%, below the market-implied 60.2%, so the favorite price does not represent value. To back a side profitably we would need a price >= 1.818 for our estimated probability; current prices (Home 1.66 / Away 2.17) do not offer positive expected value on either side based on the supplied data.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and recent results for both players (10-21)
• • No available H2H, injury, or surface-specific edge in the provided research
• • Market prices favor the home player at 1.66, but implied probability (~60.2%) exceeds our estimate (~55%)