Highlights

• • Both players show identical records and surface history in supplied research
• • Market's heavy favoritism toward Francesca is not justified by the provided data

Pros

• + Large margin between our estimated true probability and market-implied probability creates strong EV
• + Current price 5.42 far exceeds our minimum required odds (3.571) for value

Cons

• - Research is sparse and truncated — there may be external info (ranking, injury, head-to-head) not included here that explains the market line
• - Small-sample career data and recent volatility increase uncertainty around our probability estimate

Details

We find clear value backing the home underdog (Enola Chiesa). The provided research shows both players with virtually identical profiles (career span, overall records 10-21, and experience on clay and hard) and similarly poor recent results; there is no evidence in the supplied material to justify the market making Francesca Curmi an ~87.6% favorite. Given the lack of differentiation in the dataset, we assign Enola a materially higher true win probability than the market-implied 18.5%. Using a conservative assessment that incorporates identical records, surface exposure, and recent form, we estimate Enola's true probability at 28%. At the current decimal price of 5.42 this produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.28 * 5.42 - 1 ≈ +0.518), so the underdog is a value bet against the oversized favorite.

Key factors

• • Both players in supplied data have identical win-loss records (10-21) and played same surfaces
• • Recent form shown in the research is poor for both — no clear edge visible
• • Market-implied probability (away 1.142 ≈ 87.6%) is unsupported by the provided profiles, creating value on the underdog