Highlights

• • Market implies ~77.4% for Monteiro; we estimate 80%
• • Minimum fair odds at our estimate = 1.25; current 1.292 > required

Pros

• + Monteiro has explicit grass experience while Dalla Valle does not
• + Current price is slightly above our fair-value cutoff, producing positive EV

Cons

• - Recent form data comes from clay events in Genoa which may not translate to grass
• - Edge is modest (~3.4% ROI) — not large, and sensitive to probability estimation

Details

We estimate Thiago Monteiro is the stronger and more experienced grass-capable player here. The market price of 1.292 implies a win probability of ~77.4%. Given Monteiro's superior match experience, explicit grass exposure (while Enrico Dalla Valle shows no grass history in the provided profile), and slightly better career record, we assign a true win probability of 80.0% for Monteiro. At 80% true probability the fair decimal price is 1.25; the current 1.292 price therefore offers positive edge: EV = 0.80 * 1.292 - 1 = +0.0336 (≈ +3.36% ROI). We also note both have recent matches on clay in Genoa, which reduces direct form-transferability to grass and justifies a modest margin rather than an extreme probability. Because EV > 0 at the available price, we recommend backing the away player (Thiago Monteiro).

Key factors

• • Monteiro has recorded grass experience whereas Dalla Valle has no grass history in the provided profile
• • Monteiro has more matches and a stronger overall profile (29-32 vs 20-25) in the research data
• • Both players recently played on clay in Genoa, reducing direct form transfer to grass and supporting a conservative probability edge