Highlights

• • Away implied probability (1/1.175) ~85% seems too high given research
• • Home price 4.45 requires only ~22.5% true chance to breakeven; we estimate ~28%

Pros

• + Strong positive EV at current widely-available odds
• + Enrique has recent clay match wins indicating surface competence

Cons

• - Very small sample size for Enrique increases uncertainty
• - Julio's superior experience and match volume still make him the logical favorite

Details

We find value backing Enrique Carrascosa Diaz at 4.45. The market prices Julio Cesar Porras at an implied ~85% win chance (1/1.175), which looks overstated given the research. Julio has a larger sample (32 matches, 17-15) and more experience, but his recent results include losses at higher-level hard-court events and do not indicate clear dominance on clay. Enrique has a very small sample (4 matches, 1-3) but has recent clay matches including a win at an M15 clay event, showing some competence on the surface. Given the uncertainty from Enrique's small sample size, a reasonable true probability for Enrique is materially higher than the 22.5% implied by 4.45 odds; we estimate roughly 28%. At that probability Enrique offers positive EV (0.28*4.45 - 1 = +0.246). The edge rests on the market overestimating Julio's win probability and the limited but relevant clay form shown by Enrique.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~85% for Julio which looks overstated versus available form data
• • Julio has larger match sample (32 matches) and better overall record but recent results include losses on hard
• • Enrique has limited data but has recent clay match experience and an M15 clay win