Enrique Collar vs Eder Blanco Fernandez De Leceta
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No bet — current favorite price (1.26) is too short relative to our conservative 75% win estimate, and we lack supporting data to justify backing the underdog.
Highlights
- • Favorite implied probability (79.4%) exceeds our estimated true probability (75%)
- • EV at current favorite price is negative (-0.055), so not a value wager
Pros
- + Market likely reflects additional information we don't have, reducing mispricing risk
- + Conservative stance avoids taking negative-EV bets
Cons
- - Limited research prevents exploiting potential hidden value
- - If we underestimated the favorite (true p >79.4%), we miss a small value opportunity
Details
Market pricing strongly favors the away player at 1.26 (implied ~79.4%). We lack any corroborating research (form, injuries, H2H, ranking) beyond the surface (clay). Given the limited information, we assign a more conservative true win probability for the favorite of 75.0%, below the market-implied 79.4%. At that estimate the favorite does not offer positive EV at 1.26 (EV = 0.75 * 1.26 - 1 = -0.055). The underdog price (3.55, implied ~28.2%) would only be value if we believed the underdog’s true win probability exceeded ~28.17%; with no supporting data we cannot justify that. Therefore we recommend no bet — current prices do not present demonstrable value.
Key factors
- • Market heavily favors away (1.26) — implied probability ~79.4%
- • Only concrete research point is surface (clay); no form, injury, or H2H data available
- • Our conservative estimated probability (75%) is below market-implied, so no value