Highlights

• • Market implies a 72% chance for home but research doesn't support such a large gap
• • At 2.93 the away price exceeds our min required odds (2.778) for a profitable bet

Pros

• + Underdog price (2.93) offers a small positive expected value against our conservative probability
• + Similar career records and no documented grass edge make the matchup closer than the market implies

Cons

• - Limited data and no grass results for either player increases variance and risk
• - Edge is small (≈5.5% ROI) and sensitive to estimation error in true probability

Details

The market strongly favors the home player (implied 72.1% at 1.388) but the available research shows both players have similar career records (Couacaud 14-18, Wallart 13-15) and neither has documented grass experience in the provided profiles. That reduces confidence that Couacaud should be a ~72% pick. Given near-par form and lack of surface edge for the favorite, we estimate Enzo Wallart's true win probability around 36%. At the current away decimal price of 2.93 this implies a small positive edge (EV = 0.36 * 2.93 - 1 ≈ +0.055). The market overround (~6.2%) and the lack of grass data increase variance, but the price for Wallart appears to offer value versus our conservative true-probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players have similar career win-loss records and limited distinguishing form in the research
• • No documented grass experience for either player in the provided profiles increases outcome uncertainty
• • Market strongly favors home (implied 72%), suggesting potential overpricing of the favorite and value on the underdog