Highlights

• • Market implies ~38% for Catry; we estimate ~42%
• • Required fair odds (2.381) are noticeably lower than offered 2.63

Pros

• + Catry’s stronger overall record and greater match volume suggest a higher baseline chance than the market implies
• + Current price (2.63) provides a clear mathematical edge if our probability is accurate

Cons

• - Neither player has documented grass results in the provided data, increasing uncertainty about matchup dynamics
• - Recent losses for both players indicate possible form volatility; small-sample signals could be misleading

Details

We find value backing Robin Catry (away) at the current decimal price of 2.63. The market implies roughly a 38.0% chance for Catry; our assessment, based on the head-to-head absence and the provided player profiles, favors Catry more than the market: Catry has a stronger overall season win-loss (26-19 across 45 matches) and deeper recent match volume compared with Enzo Couacaud (14-18 across 32 matches). Couacaud’s recent form shown here is weak (consecutive losses), while Catry’s form, although containing losses, reflects a higher baseline win rate. Both players lack documented grass results in the provided data (their recent matches are on clay/hard), which raises uncertainty, but that uncertainty cuts both ways and does not justify the market heavily favoring Couacaud at 1.465. We estimate Catry’s true win probability at 42%, which gives a fair price around 2.381 — well below the available 2.63 — producing positive expected value (EV = 0.105 per 1 unit staked). Key risks are the absence of grass experience for both players and limited direct indicators of serve/return advantage on this surface, so we treat the edge as opportunistic rather than certain.

Key factors

• • Robin Catry has superior season win-loss (26-19) and more match volume than Enzo Couacaud (14-18)
• • Couacaud shows weak recent results in the provided matches (consecutive losses)
• • Both players lack documented grass experience in the provided data, increasing variance but not favoring the market price for Couacaud