Enzo Lima vs Gustavo Heide
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The quoted favorite price for Heide is overpriced by the market relative to the evidence provided; we find no positive EV and therefore do not recommend a bet.
Highlights
- • Heide is the clear market favorite but supplied data does not support a >93% win probability
- • At our estimated 70% win chance the favorite price yields a negative ROI (-0.25)
Pros
- + Market consensus strongly favors Heide, reflecting general expectation of his win
- + Heide has professional match experience across clay and hard courts
Cons
- - Provided data is limited and does not justify the extremely short price
- - No information on Enzo Lima to assess potential upset value
Details
We compare the market price (Gustavo Heide 1.071) to our estimate of his true win probability. Gustav Heide has a modest pro record (19-15) and recent match history on clay/hard but the supplied data does not justify an extreme >93% true chance. To be profitable at the quoted price a win probability >0.935 would be required; our assessment of the available evidence gives Heide a far lower realistic probability (~70%). Therefore the favorite price offers negative expected value and we do not recommend taking the market line. The home player (Enzo Lima) has no data in the provided research, so we cannot justify backing him either at 12.17 as a value play given lack of supporting evidence.
Key factors
- • Market implies a 93.5% win probability for Heide (1/1.071) which is far higher than the supplied performance data supports
- • Heide’s recorded career win rate (19-15) and limited recent results do not justify near-coinfall dominance
- • No research provided on Enzo Lima, preventing a confident underdog valuation despite the long market price