Enzo Aguiard vs Jake Delaney
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market prices favor Jake but are too short versus our estimated win probability (~62%), and Enzo's price is not generous enough given his limited sample — no value on either side at current odds.
Highlights
- • Implied market probabilities: Enzo 40.0%, Jake 67.6%
- • Our estimated true probability for Jake (62.0%) yields negative EV at 1.48
Pros
- + Jake is the safer pick on form and experience
- + Enzo offers a decent payout if one believes small-sample variance favors him
Cons
- - Neither price offers positive expected value against our probability estimates
- - Enzo's very small match sample increases uncertainty and downside for backing him
Details
We compared market-implied probabilities (Enzo 2.50 -> 40.0%, Jake 1.48 -> 67.6%) to our independent assessment. Jake Delaney has a much larger sample (73 matches, 44-29) and is the clear favorite on hard courts, but his historical win-rate (~60-63%) and recent results do not justify a true win probability as high as 67.6%. We estimate Jake's true win probability at ~62.0%, which produces a negative EV at the quoted 1.48. Enzo Aguiard's small sample (9 matches, 4-5) and mixed results leave his true win probability below the 40.0% threshold implied by 2.50. Enzo would need a true win probability >40.0% to be +EV at 2.50; we estimate his true probability nearer to 38.0%, so that line is also negative EV. Given both sides produce negative expected value versus our probabilities, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Market heavily favors Jake (short price reflects perceived higher reliability)
- • Jake has a much larger sample size and better overall record on hard courts
- • Enzo's sample is very small and recent results are mixed, increasing estimation uncertainty