Highlights

• • Home at 1.18 implies ~84.7% win probability
• • We estimate Enzo ~80% — not enough to beat the market price

Pros

• + Market correctly reflects a strong favorite; avoids overbetting on shaky underdog
• + Berta's 0-2 clay record justifies heavy favorite status

Cons

• - Small sample sizes increase model uncertainty (one-sided data only)
• - We lack any direct data on Enzo Lima to refine the probability further

Details

We assess that the market is pricing the home player (Enzo Lima) as a heavy favorite at decimal 1.18 (implied ~84.7%). The only detailed data available is for Mateo Berta, who has a 0-2 career record (both recent matches on clay), indicating poor form and very limited experience. Given Berta's lack of wins and clay-only losses, we estimate Enzo's true win probability at about 80%. That is below the market-implied 84.7%, so backing Enzo at 1.18 has negative expected value. Conversely, the market gives Berta ~22.7% implied probability at 4.4; our assessment of Berta is closer to ~20% (or lower) due to the 0-2 record, so we do not see positive value on the underdog either. Therefore we recommend taking no side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Mateo Berta 0-2 recent record with both losses on clay
• • Market-implied probability for Enzo (1.18) is ~84.7%, higher than our estimated 80%
• • Very limited data on both players; small sample increases uncertainty