Eric David Verdes vs Rodrigo Fernandes
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a very small positive edge backing the home player at 1.93 based on Fernandes' modest record; edge is tiny and uncertainty is high.
Highlights
- • Estimated true probability for home = 52.0% vs. implied 51.8% at 1.93
- • EV is marginally positive (+0.004) but sample-size risk is substantial
Pros
- + Market appears to favor a player with documented 5-6 record — possible misprice
- + Home bet shows a small positive expected value against the quoted price
Cons
- - Very limited and noisy data (only Fernandes' brief career record provided)
- - Edge is extremely small and could be erased by any unlisted factors (injury, matchup, form)
Details
We judge the market slightly favors Rodrigo Fernandes (away) at 1.80, but the limited data in the Research shows Fernandes has a short pro record (5-6) and mixed recent results on hard courts. Given Fernandes' sub-50% career win rate in the provided sample, we estimate Eric David Verdes (home) has a marginally better true chance to win. Comparing our estimated true probability for the home side (52.0%) to the market-implied probability for the home price 1.93 (51.8%) yields a small positive edge. Calculation: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.52 * 1.93 - 1 = +0.0036 (≈ +0.004), so the home price shows tiny value versus our model. We note high uncertainty due to the very small sample size for Fernandes and complete lack of data on Verdes in the Research, so this is a speculative, low-margin value opportunity rather than a strong play.
Key factors
- • Rodrigo Fernandes has a short, slightly negative record in the provided data (5-6) on hard courts
- • Bookmakers make Fernandes the favorite (1.80) despite his limited winning record — potential mispricing
- • Data gap: no information on Eric David Verdes in the Research increases outcome uncertainty