Highlights

• • Sels has grass play in his profile; Vanshelboim does not
• • Current odds 1.901 imply ~52.6% — we estimate Sels at ~58%

Pros

• + Surface advantage for Sels on grass
• + Price offers positive expected value under our probability estimate

Cons

• - Both players have recent losses, reducing confidence in any pick
• - No head-to-head or injury data provided — uncertainty remains

Details

We see value on Jelle Sels at the current symmetric market price (1.901). The key edge is surface profile: Sels has documented grass experience while Eric Vanshelboim's listed surfaces are clay and hard with no grass record, which is a meaningful disadvantage on grass where movement, slice and serve patterns differ. Vanshelboim's recent form on clay shows multiple losses, and while both players have recent defeats, Sels' grass experience and broader surface exposure suggest a higher likelihood to win than the market's implied probability (~52.6%). Using a conservative true win probability of 58% for Sels yields positive expected value versus the 1.901 price.

Key factors

• • Sels has documented grass experience; Vanshelboim lacks grass matches in provided profile
• • Both players show recent losses, but surface advantage favors Sels
• • Market price (1.901) implies ~52.6% — we estimate Sels significantly higher (≈58%)